Climate change

Last week the World Bank hosted a workshop on the social dimension of climate change, a good chance for insights from the dark side of the moon. Not only environment, not only the economic implications of mitigating greenhouse gases, but people affected, the poors' right to their lands and to natural resources. Many studies were presented. One rang my bell.

A whole session was dedicated to the role that climate change impacts and disasters may have on conflicts and migration in developing countries. These are some of the previous statements that called attention the most:

• Climate change is an "all encompassing threat" to human health, to global food supply, and to peace and security" (Annan, 2006).
• Climate change will "help produce insurgencies, genocide, guerrilla attacks, gang warfare and global terrorism" (Homer Dixon, 2007).
• Climate change "may induce large-scale migration and lead to greater competition for earth's resources" which may result in "increased danger of violent conflicts and wars, within and between states" (Mjor, 2007).

But what do we _really_ know about environmental factors and armed conflicts?

You may be surprised to know that Indonesia has emerged as the world's third largest emitter of carbon, following the U.S. and China.  This is primarily because of land-based emissions from peatland degradation, forest fires and deforestation, complemented by some of the fastest growing energy-based emissions.  In addition, as an archipelago of 17,000 islands and a significant agricultural population, its coastal urban population and farming-dependent rural economy are highly vulnerable to climate change.

For these reasons, the World Bank has been actively supporting a range of partnerships on mitigation and adaptation, including:

 The World Wildlife Fund recently announced a new report that documents deforestation on the island of Sumatra, Indonesia.  WWF partnered with Hokkaido University and Remote Sensing Solutions GmbH on the full report, (pdf), which details the impact of converting carbon-rich swampy peatlands into pulpwood and palm oil plantations.

This is an exciting time to be working on climate change, especially in the Bank.

Various conclusive reports and developments in 2007 (the 4th IPCC report, the Nobel Peace Prize, etc) placed the challenge of climate change firmly in the consciousness of the development community. Following on this, the Climate talks in Bali (December 3-14, 2007) confirmed the roadmap for a global effort at addressing the climate challenge, with an agreement on process that included all key players, notably the USA, in whatever emissions control regime was determined as appropriate after the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. This regime will be largely finalized, hopefully, by December 2009.